Despite the rise of advanced productivity tools, AI, and people-centric workplaces, project failures remain a stark reality. New products often underperform in the marketplace, fail to meet customer expectations, or overlook safety in design and manufacturing stages. The recent door panel blowout in Boeing 737-9 MAX and the devastating implosion of the Titan deep-sea submersible that claimed five lives are glaring examples.
The root of many such failures isn’t the absence of knowledge but the presence of a silent consensus, where team members, aware of potential pitfalls, choose silence over speaking up. This phenomenon, identified through various studies, hints at a systemic issue in project and product management—a failure to preemptively address foreseeable risk.
Introducing Premortem
To combat this, Harvard Business Review (HBR) recommends a method called Premortem. Distinct from the traditional postmortem analysis, a Premortem operates on the principle of prospective hindsight. This approach involves a thought experiment where a project or product is imagined to have failed spectacularly right at the outset. Participants are then tasked with identifying every plausible reason for this failure, thereby uncovering potential risks and gaps that might have been overlooked. This method not only encourages open dialogue but also equips leaders with the insights needed to proactively mitigate risks.
A Case Study
While writing this blog, I was reminded of a software project we undertook in the early days of mobile internet. Our client was one of the leading TELCOs in Asia, and we were building a scratch card system. This system allowed users to buy a prepaid card at any local point of sale and then download the song associated with the scratch card.
The technology was challenging, as we had to ensure the integrity of each transaction to prevent huge financial losses for the client. We managed to achieve the design objectives, and the project worked flawlessly. However, in the marketplace, the scratch card product flopped.
On analysis, their product research team found that by the time the physical scratch cards reached the shops in many parts of the country, the associated song, whose picture was printed on the card, had become out of fashion. This resulted in a huge unsold inventory with thousands of small shops. The sad part here is that this supply chain bottleneck was obvious to the TELCO’s sales team, veterans in the space, but they never highlighted this to the CEO when the idea of a song-scratch card product was proposed.
Had the team used Premortem, they could have avoided the millions of rupees they spent on creating and distributing this product.
The Science Behind Premortem
The idea of Premortem is based on a study by researchers from Wharton School, Cornell, and the University of Colorado. They introduced a concept called prospective hindsight, which found that imagining that an event has already occurred increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.
Interestingly, the idea of Premortem is the antithesis of a method that many of you may be familiar with. This method involves imagining the product launch has succeeded. It’s the famous Amazon working backward method, which is a product development approach that starts with the team imagining the product is ready to ship. The product team’s first step is to draft a press release announcing the product’s availability. This method of writing a press release before the actual development helps in many ways, as it’s a lot cheaper than even building a minimum viable product.
Boosting Software Development Success with Premortem
Research shows that the premortem technique can enhance our ability to foresee potential pitfalls by about 30%. In my experience, this approach is especially powerful in the realm of software development, where success rates are alarmingly low. The Standish Group’s CHAOS report reveals that only 29% of projects meet their intended goals, with 59% encountering challenges and 19% getting cancelled. For larger projects, the success rate plummets to a mere 10%. Faced with these daunting odds, adopting strategies like premortems, which enable teams to anticipate and mitigate risks, could be a game-changer in improving project outcomes. Any tool that helps reduce failure rates is undoubtedly worth embracing.
Quick Snapshot of Premortem
- Purpose: Identify potential risks and problems that could occur during or after a product launch.
- Process: Involves a team brainstorming session where they imagine the worst-case scenario for the launch and discuss how to prevent it or mitigate its impact.
- Focus: Internal, used by the development and launch team.
In Conclusion
Navigating the complexities of modern project management requires more than just innovative ideas and cutting-edge technology; it demands a proactive approach to risk assessment and mitigation. The Premortem method, complemented by strategic tools like the Amazon “working backward” method, offers a powerful framework for identifying and addressing potential pitfalls before they jeopardize your project’s success.
As you stand at the precipice of your next project or product launch, I urge you not only to incorporate these methodologies but also to cultivate a culture of openness within your team. Challenge the norm of silent consensus. Encourage every member of your team to voice their insights and concerns. By doing so, you transform potential vulnerabilities into opportunities for improvement and innovation.
Remember, the greatest barrier to success is the fear of failure. By preemptively addressing what could go wrong, we open the door to achieving what seemed impossible. The Founder Catalyst stands ready to guide you through this transformative journey, empowering you to lead with foresight, confidence, and resilience.
